Reserve Bank’s leading indicator falls in January
by Staff Writer,
2016-03-22 11:11:44.0
THE composite leading business cycle indicator has declined yet again, pointing to dim growth prospects this year.
The leading indicator, a forecasting device used by the Reserve Bank, dropped 4% in January from a year ago, after falling 3.8% year on year in December.
The seasonally adjusted indicator provides a guideline for economic activity and growth for at least six months ahead.
It decreased 0.6% month on month in January.
Six of the 10 indicators measured in January decreased, while one remained unchanged and three increased.
The largest negative contributions in January came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans passed and a decrease in the US dollar based export commodity price index.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged on a month-to-month basis in December 2015. The composite lagging business cycle indicator decreased by 1.4% on a month-to-month basis in December 2015.
The Bank uses the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices to indicate the direction economic activity is likely to take in the short term.
The Reserve Bank in Pretoria. Picture: FINANCIAL MAIL
THE composite leading business cycle indicator has declined yet again, pointing to dim growth prospects this year.
The leading indicator, a forecasting device used by the Reserve Bank, dropped 4% in January from a year ago, after falling 3.8% year on year in December.
The seasonally adjusted indicator provides a guideline for economic activity and growth for at least six months ahead.
It decreased 0.6% month on month in January.
Six of the 10 indicators measured in January decreased, while one remained unchanged and three increased.
The largest negative contributions in January came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans passed and a decrease in the US dollar based export commodity price index.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged on a month-to-month basis in December 2015. The composite lagging business cycle indicator decreased by 1.4% on a month-to-month basis in December 2015.
The Bank uses the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices to indicate the direction economic activity is likely to take in the short term.
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