IN THE statement released by Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Mmusi Maimane, subsequent to the party’s Federal Council meeting this past weekend, he said: "The DA does not share the views of some who say that SA is becoming a failed state."
It generated a number of headlines. "SA not becoming a failed state — Maimane", reported iAfrica, and, "SA is not a failed state, says Maimane" wrote News24. Other stories, on TimesLive and AllAfrica for example, prominently referenced the line.
It will be interesting to observe the ways in which Maimane will seek to differentiate the DA under his leadership from what the party said and did under Helen Zille. While there might be some doubt as to whether this shift, if it does happen, will be substantial or not, tone is one area worth looking at.
Certainly the sentiment that the DA no longer regards SA as being on a path to failure is a new one, and one markedly different from much the party has said on this issue in the past.
Zille first introduced the threat of "the failed state" in a meaningful way in 2009, and for five years it would be a central theme used by the DA to define the country’s prospects.
In the run-up to the 2009 general election, Zille said, "This election is about whether SA is going to be a successful democracy or a failed state" (March 15 2009) and later, "Only the DA is strong enough to stop (ANC President Jacob) Zuma taking us down the road of a failed state" (April 18 2009).
Closer to election day she said, "Zuma represents the kind of leaders that take governments down the path of cronyism, corruption and criminalisation, towards the failed state. The evidence is already there" (April 22 2009).
The idea made a powerful impact. Even the international press caught on to it. "SA opposition warns country could become failed state", warned the British Telegraph newspaper. "SA ‘doomed under Zuma’", wrote the BBC News.
The suggestion that the country was inextricably on this path under Zuma became part and parcel of its analysis. In fact, in an interview soon after the election, Zille identified the need for South Africans to understand this reality as one of the DA’s primary goals: "(The DA must) make people aware of the fact that the ANC is taking SA on the road to a criminal and failed state" (April 7 2010).
Thus, the party applied the idea to a range of problematic developments, including:
• Cadre deployment: "Cadre deployment (or cronyism) is the primary cause of the ‘failed state syndrome’ so tragically prevalent on our continent." (Zille, 2009);
• Presidential pardons: "When you compromise yourself and the rule of law, you accelerate the slide to a failed state." (Athol Trollip, February 15 2010);
• SA’s performance on international indices: "If you don’t take into cognizance the trends highlighted by international statistics then you have no idea how far you are from becoming a failed state." (Athol Trollip, November 2010);
• The ANC’s call for a second transition: "We know that this so-called Second Transition will be the transition to a failed state." (Zille, November 2012); and,
• Service delivery: "Unless the administration heeds the stark and obvious lessons from its almost total collapse under the burden of cronyism and corruption, the problem will only spread and place SA on the fast track to a failed state." (John Steenhuisen, April 14 2014).
It became so entrenched in party rhetoric that the line between fears that SA was risking a path to a failed state or actually walking it became blurred.
"The ANC would be well advised to conduct some long overdue introspection — continuing on the current path will place our country on a trajectory towards a failed state," John Steenhuisen stated on April 11 2012. Elsewhere, "Closed crony society firmly on road to failed state", DA member of the provincial legislature in the Eastern Cape Bobby Stevenson titled a statement on August 13 2012.
By the end of 2012, the transition from threat to actual reality seems to have been best captured by this quote from Zille: "Tragically, the ‘failed state’ will continue to spread its tentacles, until voters accept the responsibility that democracy gives them to hold their leaders to account" (June 24 2012). The failed state, the DA argued, had SA firmly in its clutches.
On the party fringes, it became a matter of illustrating the consequences. "The Free State has become a typical example of a failed state", the party’s provincial leader Roy Jankielsohn would say only a month or two ago (2 March 2015). He was, of course only following the national lead. On November 9 2010, Zille had stated, "In fact, in places where the ANC gets over 90% of the vote no matter how badly they govern, all the morbid symptoms of the ‘failed state’ are already apparent."
So it would seem the greatest obstacle to Maimane’s statement that, "The DA does not share the views of some who say that SA is becoming a failed state", is none other than the DA itself — its former leader in particular, who was under no illusions on this particular subject. "The views of some" are actually the views of the public representatives he oversees.
In fact, Maimane has said as much himself.
In a recent response to Magnus Heystek, on November 21 2014, and while he did pre-empt the sentiment by saying he did not agree that Heystek’s argument "is evidence of our inevitable slide towards a failed state", he would go on to argue, "Make no mistake, SA does risk descending into a failed state in the future if we do not arrest the steady decline we are currently experiencing under Jacob Zuma".
There are two explanations for Maimane’s recent change of heart. First, he is unaware of his party’s own record on the subject; second, he wishes to reposition the party as more patriotic and optimistic — the custodians of goodwill and positivity.
The idea of a failed state and whether we risk walking down a path towards it, whether we are on that path, or whether we have actually arrived at the destination is a great rhetorical device. Ultimately it cannot be proved because no one will agree on what failure actually is. But there are dangers in using it. Saying you are against the descent can be seen as patriotic; arguing you are in the midst of such a descent or, worse, actually suffering the consequences, can be seen as pessimistic and negative. That is a brand the DA is trying hard to move away from. To be sure, it is not something potential DA voters will respond well to.
Of course, the real question is, if the DA doesn’t regard the ANC’s governance as evidence of a decline into chaos, what does it regard it as? Surely not the opposite? At least, it would be hard to reconcile that with its many and varied descriptions of the ANC’s administration and Zuma’s leadership as everything from "broken" to fundamentally destructive. Ironically, the statement in which Maimane made that claim also contained the following, "The nuclear build procurement deal currently being pursued in great secrecy has the potential of crippling SA."
The line between patriotism and pessimism is a fine one. The DA walks it every day. It will be interesting to see in the coming months, particularly in the run-up to next year’s local government elections, which way it leans.
On that note, I am taking a break. I shall be back in October.
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