Economic weakness to persist, Reserve Bank data show
by Staff writer,
2015-11-24 09:58:08.0
FURTHER weakness is expected in the South African economy, as the composite leading business cycle indicator fell for the eighth consecutive month since September.
The leading indicator dropped 5.5% in September from a year ago, after falling 4.7% in August.
The Reserve Bank released the data on Tuesday.
The seasonally adjusted indicator provides a guideline for economic activity and growth for at least six months ahead.
It fell 0.3% month on month in September 2015.
Only two of the nine component time series that were available for September increased, while seven decreased.
The largest negative contributions in September came from a deceleration in the 12-month percentage change in job advertisement space, as well as the 12-month percentage change in the number of new passenger vehicles sold.
The largest positive contribution came from an increase in the number of residential building plans passed, followed by a widening in the interest rate spread.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator decreased by 0.4% month on month in August. The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased by 0.8% month on month in August.
The Bank uses the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices to indicate the direction economic activity is likely to take in the short term.
The South African Reserve Bank says further weakness is expected in the South African economy, as the composite leading business cycle indicator fell for the eighth consecutive month since September. Picture: THE TIMES
FURTHER weakness is expected in the South African economy, as the composite leading business cycle indicator fell for the eighth consecutive month since September.
The leading indicator dropped 5.5% in September from a year ago, after falling 4.7% in August.
The Reserve Bank released the data on Tuesday.
The seasonally adjusted indicator provides a guideline for economic activity and growth for at least six months ahead.
It fell 0.3% month on month in September 2015.
Only two of the nine component time series that were available for September increased, while seven decreased.
The largest negative contributions in September came from a deceleration in the 12-month percentage change in job advertisement space, as well as the 12-month percentage change in the number of new passenger vehicles sold.
The largest positive contribution came from an increase in the number of residential building plans passed, followed by a widening in the interest rate spread.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator decreased by 0.4% month on month in August. The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased by 0.8% month on month in August.
The Bank uses the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices to indicate the direction economic activity is likely to take in the short term.
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