Zwelinzima Vavi. Picture: BLOOMBERG/NADINE HUTTON
Zwelinzima Vavi. Picture: BLOOMBERG/NADINE HUTTON

THE political division in the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) is between those who recognise the "political bankruptcy of the African National Congress (ANC) and those who don’t".

This was the crux of National Union of Metalworkers of SA general secretary Irvin Jim’s presentation on why his union should not be expelled at a marathon meeting of Cosatu’s leadership on Friday into early Saturday morning.

He spectacularly failed, as shortly after his presentation a motion to expel Numsa was tabled. This was then followed by another motion, by Numsa’s allies, to take the presentation back to workers and for members to decide whether SA’s largest union should stay or go. This motion was defeated and Numsa was expelled at 1am on Saturday morning.

The union walked out of Cosatu House into the cold, both literally and figuratively. Its leaders looked stunned. A host of journalists were outside to capture the moment. The leaders all wore T-shirts with the words Hands off Numsa emblazoned on the front.

The ramifications of that meeting will be felt for a long time to come.

This moment in our politics was not a surprise but it was a shattering one for those who built, nurtured and led Cosatu through the years.

Twenty years on, workers are divided between those who "recognise the political bankruptcy of the ANC and those who don’t" and this is the reason the moment is significant. It is the ANC which is at the heart of the Cosatu battle, and it is the party which will most feel the political ramifications of its split.

But first, there are many factors which will determine the effect of the split, which is inevitable.

The first is centred on Numsa itself. To what extent are the members loyal to the positions stated by their leaders? Does this supersede their loyalty to Cosatu or the ANC?

A new metal workers union, engineered by former Numsa president Cedric Gina, who is closely tied to the ANC, could easily slot into the Cosatu fold as it is a new, in-house union organising in Numsa’s sector.

This would be a convenient route to explore for workers who feel Mr Jim and company overstepped the bounds and deserve being booted out. The metalworkers on the ground, it is clear, remain welcome in Cosatu. Their leaders, however, who are blamed for unilaterally taking far-reaching decisions at a special congress last year, had to go.

Now that Numsa is expelled, the oft-repeated mantra by its top brass — that its decisions and its posture were derived from a democratic process which its members had endorsed — will be put to the test.

Unions in the opposing faction of the federation would also be subject to the same test. Should their members feel that the expulsion of Numsa was unfair, they too would face a revolt. The battle is now over the hearts and minds of ordinary workers in SA. This moment is a keen test of whether workers believe the ANC continues to have a bias towards them.

Numsa’s special national congress resolutions include the formation of a United Front and also that the union would be a catalyst to the formation of a "Worker Party" or a Movement for Socialism.

The United Front has been set up with structures in five provinces. A former Numsa shop steward, now a United Front organiser, recently won a by-election in Uitenhage in the Eastern Cape.

Numsa’s exit from Cosatu presents interesting possibilities for the 2016 local elections, particularly in the Eastern Cape and Gauteng.

It is widely known that it was Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and the organising capacity of Cosatu’s unions, including Numsa, which allowed the ANC to retain the Nelson Mandela metro in the past election.

This time it is different. There is a chance that both Mr Vavi and Numsa will be out of Cosatu by that time, and the ANC losing that municipality is way more than a possibility. It is a near certainty.

Numsa’s opponents in Cosatu disagree; insiders say now that Numsa is outside the fold, it will be easy to "deal with".

The ANC is also looking at the internal challenges it is facing in that municipality to help turn the situation around before 2016. Gauteng too is at risk, given the high density of Numsa workers in both Ekurhuleni and Tshwane.

The extent of Numsa’s fracturing is also inevitable. Mr Gina is a glaring example that its 330,000 members are unlikely to want to abandon Cosatu and the alliance will determine the kind of movement it is yet to build. The union’s first task is to ensure that its rank and file members rally behind its leaders and there is just no telling yet whether they will.