THAT President Robert Mugabe stage-managed a Constitutional Court ruling forcing him to hold elections is obvious. How else do you explain that what appeared to be a loss actually turns out to be a win for the wily but ailing president?
His unilateral decision to declare July 31 the election date was clearly a move to try to outfox his rivals and the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) ahead of its emergency summit last weekend.
By declaring an early election date, Mr Mugabe hoped to be able to back the Sadc leaders into a corner so that they would have little choice but to endorse his timetable.
If they had agreed to his election date, it would have made a win at the polls a greater certainty.
It would have also ensured that the much-needed security, media and electoral reforms, which are being demanded to secure a level playing field for his opponents, would not have been able to take place.
But his plan initially looked like it was going to backfire when the Sadc heads of state refused to agree to Mr Mugabe’s proposal. Instead, they told him to seek a mandate from the Constitutional Court for a two-week extension. This placed Mugabe in a difficult position.
If he acceded to their demands that he ask the Constitutional Court for a postponement, he would have looked like a weak leader, no longer in control of his country’s destiny. Yet he could not dismiss their demands either, as he is reliant on the Sadc for economic and political support, and to finance the election. If the Constitutional Court was asked and agreed, as the Sadc wanted, to an extension of the deadline, it could have placed Zimbabwe in a constitutional crisis.
Besides which, Mr Mugabe has been arguing that he is just obeying the law.
Now the African Union (AU) has waded in, calling on all Zimbabweans to obey the rule of law. It is just the sort of lifeline Mr Mugabe will seize with both hands. He can use the AU’s call as a way out of the Sadc’s demands — a chance to negotiate a better deal for himself. This might entail a delay in the election date as long as electoral reforms that are being demanded are watered down.
Either way, this year’s Zimbabwean election is increasingly looking to be a repeat of the violent and ultimately doomed affair of 2008.
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